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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the current field is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending together. Under an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still